2024 senate predictions

Through Monday, Nov. 4, 83 million Americans had already cast their ballots in the 2024 election. On Tuesday, Nov.

5 — Election Day — millions more will join them.

Their votes this year will matter more than ever: According to 538’s forecasts for the White House, U.S. Senate and U.S. House, control of the federal government is firmly up for grabs.

Our final model runs (published at 6 a.m.

2024 senate elections map

Eastern on Nov. 5) give Republicans a roughly 9-in-10 chance of winning control of the Senate, while the House and presidency are both toss-ups. The race for the White House, in fact, may be the closest presidential election in over a century.

The presidency

Let’s start with the race everyone is watching.

According to 538’s final presidential forecast, Vice President Kamala Harris has a 50-in-100 chance of winning the Electoral College after all votes are counted (which could take a few days). We give former President Donald Trump a 49-in-100 chance